Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Auto-Play Setting


More in the vein of hands that play themselves: betting into the table from early position flopping an open-ended str8 flush draw. I bet near pot $8 into $10, guy on left shoves for $20 with 2nd set of 6s, guy on his left cold-calls. I couldn't make sense of his call; the short stack had enough to properly raise, and thus let me reraise (and with a 50%+ shot at my draws -15 outs - I shoved for $27 more), and then he folds to my shove. If he's cold calling a $20 raise, why fold for $27 more when there's so much in the pot?? I turn my str8 and take down a $65 pot. One thing to consider - he might have had either the open ended or flush draws, the latter of which takes out 2 of my outs).
One thing I was thinking about the other day, although it's true that I've got a 50% shot at hitting my outs (and 2 of those are pure nut outs), I could hit one of my other 13 outs but still lose if he fills up. So what are my true odds? Any 6, ten, or 4 will fill his boat, so there are 7 of those (one 6, 3 tens, and 3 4s), left in the deck. Plus there is the chance that running ranks will hit the board. Too much to think about right now.

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